Last EOD analysis for the year

This is my last EOD analysis for the year.  I am not sure if I will be blogging next year, it does take up a lot of my time.  I may just do a weekly longer term outlook at the weekends.  I will think about it over the holiday period.

Anyway, here are some charts with my comments on it.  The best trade today, was on the open, with many buy signals, with the best being the HVC breakout from a limit orders basing zone.  Whenever I see that pattern, I expect a large move, and as it is with the overall trend, then it is a trade that must be held for a large profit, rather than a small 30 - 40 tick trade. 

I did not take the trade, as I was originally not going to trade today, but my mouse finger became very itchy when it saw a very good trend re-entry later on.  I could actually have had a 100 tick trade on that, if I was more adventurous.  But I entered after a large up move already so did not expect it to go that far, especially after the low daily ranges we have been having recently after the open.

Here are some charts:

 

 

Today's Trade

I was not going to trade today, but I got itchy mouse fingers and took a long after I had seen limit buy orders on the 5 min and 12 range, after a retrace.  I also did something I do not usually do, and that was to add to a winner.  I have added to losers in the past (I have vowed never to do that again), but I have rarely added to winning trades.

Anyway, the premise of adding to the trade, was a sound one as price had broken above limit sell orders.  The trade worked out very well so I am very happy with it.  This trade fulfilled my methodology of taking trend trades on a retrace as per Dr Joe (see earlier post re: Dr Joe and trend trading).

I was so pleased with myself with this weeks trading (with the exception of that stupid losing trade yesterday which should not have been made.  More on that in another post).  However, I finally gave in to taking a counter trend trade after I saw a good opportunity with a failed effort to break a new HOD with a climax churn showing limit sell orders on the 1 min chart.

This worked very well, but as I entered as a short term trade, I only took 15 ticks.  I could have banked over 50 ticks into the close if I had held on to it.  I feel confident enough now to take counter trend trades again, but it must be on higher probability set ups, and I must also stick to my stop loss.

So going forward, I will be taking more than 1 trade per day if the opportunities show up.  And I will not be afraid of taking counter trend trades, based on very high probability set ups.

Here are some charts:

EOD Analysis

Well what a day this was.  We had the inventory report and FOMC today, yet a small daily range.  I took 3 longs today, with 2 winners and a loss.  I should not have taken the first (losing) trade, as the impulsive moves had changed to the downside with corrective up moves.  However, I had a long bias going into today's trades, especially after the very impulsive up move after the open.

I sometimes lose sight of what is happening on the chart due to my bias.  For example, the same thing happened yesterday, and I had an opportunity to take a short, but I declined it because I was looking for longs.  In the end, I did not find a trade, which seemed like a wasted day.

So going forward, I need to keep focusing on impulsive vs corrective moves and not have any bias.

As I said on my previous post, I have now stopped trading for the holiday period and wont be trading until the new year.  I may still be posting some EOD analysis during the holiday period.

Here are some charts with comments:

3rd Trade (post FOMC)

I took a third trade today.  I have only been taking 1 trade each day.  Yesterday, I did not take a trade as I was looking for longs but I could not get a good enough set up, so taking 3 today makes up for that.

I took this trade after the FOMC, after a corrective retrace back to a demand zone from the 12 range chart.  However, the entry signal was on the 30 second chart, which I use on FOMC days.  the signal was a squat up bar after a bounce from the demand zone.  The stop loss was 11 ticks, just below the recent low of a squat bar which ended the retrace.

I did not really have a target in mind, so once it took off, I put a target of 40 ticks.  Price stalled just below it, and I was going to exit then, but I pushed up my stop loss instead and fortunately, the target was achieved for 40 ticks.

So after a losing start today, on a trade I should not have taken, I ended up with 2 good winners. 

This is my last trading day before Christmas.  So I wont be posting anymore trades until after the new year.  I may still post some end of day analysis during that period.

2nd CL trade

I took another trade today.  Another long.  This was after seeing what looked like exhaustion, and limit buy orders coming in. There was 2 sets of basing with impulsive breakout to the up side.  Price reversed down from a sweet spot between 2 climax bars.  I was actually looking to take a short there, but missed it. 

Anyway, when price retraced, it based above a demand zone created by the previous price action, so took a long there with SL just below the recent swing low.  32 tick target just below a supply zone achieved.

Today's CL trade

I had an opportunity to take a long on the open, based on my with trend 'Retrace, base and break' method.  But I declined it.  After that, price did not pull back far enough to get into the up move.  After the Oil inventory report, price fell with larger volume than the inventory bar.

Price was still above the 5 min opening range, where I saw basing and an impulsive break to the up side, so I took a long on the retrace back down with a 13 tick SL and TP just above HOD.

Unfortunately, I was stopped out. C'est la vie

Today's CL trade

I missed out on a long on the open today, as my limit order was not filled, so I had to wait for a retrace.  I saw a very good engulfing buy signal on the 700 volume chart, but got in 5 ticks worse than I should have, which meant I had a large stop loss of 18 ticks.

Price moved up quickly, so I decided to move my SL to break even.  My trade did get to 26 ticks, but then started to stall, so I moved my SL up again, to lock in 6, then 10 ticks.  Unfortunately, price reversed and stopped me out.

However, soon after the stop out, I saw another buy signal on the 700 vol chart with a RPM up with delta divergence, showing that there was limit buy orders there.  I decided not to take the trade, as I am still in 1 trade a day mode at the moment.  Pity, as my target of 1 tick, above the HOD, would have been achieved.

Here are some charts: