Update from last week's analysis

I stated last week that I expected accumulation from the Yen, and that is what we got, with price action contained within the large volume bar.  However, for confirmation that this is really accumulation, we now need a break and close above this zone. Note we had a squat bar on Thursday, so we need price to be above that bar. What I would really love, is for price to break to the down side to stop out premature longs and to instigate breakout shorts before slamming back up and stopping them out. And then a close above Thursday's high for a really big up move. Nb, after I had posted my analysis last week, the Japanese Finance Minister (or some other senior government official) said that they will continue devaluing the Yen.  So I may be barking up the wrong tree on this one, as it is difficult to go against government intentions when it comes to weaking their currency.

The Euro has fallen as I expected, and is getting near another demand zone, so expect a bounce up early next week. Hopefully back to the throwback zone (demand now becomes supply), before dropping like a brick. I did also say we should be shorting the Eur/Jpy forex cross pair, and there was a fall of over 300 ticks during the week, before a rally on Friday.  This was more down to weakness on the Euro than strength on the Yen.  So look for a good supply zone to short it.

The ES fell to the demand zone I had pointed out so we could be in for a good rally. However, price action on Wednesday and Thursday, has given me cause for concern.  This is the first real sign of weakness I have seen since this leg of the up move started.  If we get a close below Thursday's low (or the demand zone) we can expect a shakeout (correction) of all the stock indices and possible panic selling. But I am still bullish on the short term but will be flexible with the ES.

Daily charts - Is the Yen down trend coming to an end

I have not posted for a while so I thought I would do a long term analysis based on the daily charts.  Looking at the Yen futures, I noticed a bar with the highest volume since this leg of the down move started, so this may spell the end of the current down move.  We may now get accumulation over the next few weeks and then a large up move. Look for the recent low to be tested with a possible fake break out. 

I have also analysed the Euro and DX charts, and it looks like the Euro is getting ready for a large fall, while the DX looks like we have had accumulation and it is now ready for a move up.  I have also analysed the ES and there are no reasons to think that the up trend will be ending any time soon. Look to buy on the dips at demand levels.

So if you trade FX, look to shorting the EUR/JPN cross pair for a large down move.

Here are the charts.

 

Today's Trades

I took a couple of scalps today for a total of 29 ticks, but I did not trade well overall, as I declined to take 2 trades that would have got 40 ticks each. So I feel I should have done better today and hopefully I will learn from my error and take trades that have set up as per my methodology.

However, saying I did not trade well, both of my scalps were very well executed, and the second one could have gained about 70 ticks if I had held it longer. But as it was taken as a scalp, then taking 17 ticks from it was good.

I made a video on my 2nd scalp trade, but again, the sound was not very good. However, I recorded another video to explain why the trade was taken and also explained the set up for the 2 trades that I declined to take.

Here are the videos and screenshots

http://www.screencast.com/t/3VbX3JpskA
http://www.screencast.com/t/msZQkVhdINQE

Today's Trade

I took a trade on GC today after I saw a HVC breakout on the 10 range chart. I recorded the trade, but did not have my mic properly set up, so there was no sound on the 2 trade videos. So I have done another video to explain the reason for taking the trade and setting the target.

Here are the 3 videos with the trade review video with sound first

http://www.screencast.com/t/Q1oze4My
http://www.screencast.com/t/f1aPkhtLWDd
http://www.screencast.com/t/JabbISxR

Here are some screenshots too

Today's Trade

I took one trade today on gold after  seeing a squat proxy inside bar set up. This is one of my newer set up, and it is traded in the same manner as a squat bar set up. It was a good entry, but I failed to set the first target correctly, missing an obvious supply zone for one above it. I should also have looked at the 500 tick chart for the target confirmation rather than just the 5 min chart. Probably due to rustiness. Anyway, I have attached 3 videos showing how I identifed the trade and how the trade was badly managed after I realised my mistake. I suppose it is better to make and identify these mistakes while on sim, rather than when trading live. I will be going live after one more week on sim.

http://screencast.com/t/Mwrp0dQM

http://www.screencast.com/t/29kDNYTR

http://screencast.com/t/ilXcU1INF


I missed a good squat bar set up on CL whilst trading gold. I probably need to get an indicator built to alert me when a squat bar appears on a 5 and 15 min chart, then I won't have to miss these trades.

For some unknown reason, I am unable to post today's screenshots.

Back In The Saddle

I got back around 30% of my money from the PFG trustees and I have opened a trading account with Vision Financials. I have re-started on Sim again, to get back my confidence after all the stress caused by the PFG scandal.

My trading style still remain the same way. I will look out for supply and demand zones as taught by Online Trading Academy, and I will also use volume to identify my zones and use RPM and better volume for taking breakout trades into a new trend from a basing zone, or high volume churn (or squat bars) zones.  I will also use squat bars to look for reversal trades, whenever I see one with it's close in the middle or leaving a long tail.

Today, I took a sim trade on CL at a good supply zone on the 500 tickchart. It was counter trend, but the 5 min chart had given me a sense of a change in trend and then I found a good looking supply zone on the 500 tick chart, where we had a RPM up bar with an inside bar basing and then a better volume climax breakout bar. I drew my zone around the inside bar and waited for price to retrace and took a 1 contract limit order, with a SL just above the zone. I also scaled in, below a RPM up bar, so if I was not stopped out, then I would have more confidence in the trade.

Price moved as I had hoped and stalled at a demand zone I had anticipated. However, once it broke below, I was then confident of the trade working. My first target gave 48 ticks, and then my second target was soon hit as well. This was a well executed and thought out trade for me.

Here is the 5 min and 500 tick charts, and a couple of videos of the trade.

http://www.screencast.com/t/vYViY7sO
http://www.screencast.com/t/L751Nru7woiS

Today's trade

I only took one trade today as I was watching the Olympics. Finally, GB won gold today. In fact we have two. Bradley Wiggins has been phenomenal and he has again done the business.

I did however, have a trade from last night, long at a demand level and closed it earlier today for a nice profit on 3 lots.

My trade today was on YM.  It was a scalp short at a supply zone for 30 ticks. Here is the video of the trade.

http://www.screencast.com/t/cOThRBL2e