Today's trade

I only took one trade today as I was watching the Olympics. Finally, GB won gold today. In fact we have two. Bradley Wiggins has been phenomenal and he has again done the business.

I did however, have a trade from last night, long at a demand level and closed it earlier today for a nice profit on 3 lots.

My trade today was on YM.  It was a scalp short at a supply zone for 30 ticks. Here is the video of the trade.

http://www.screencast.com/t/cOThRBL2e

Unusual activity on ES at today's close

I noticed that the volume of the last two 1 minute bars on the ES were abnormally large.  They were around twice the normal volume at this time of day.  So something is occurring.  Also the RPM histogram on the 50K volume chart were also extremely large, telling me that there was an unusual large amount of speed involved.  It seems that the SM are setting up for a large move over the next couple of day's, which could last well into next couple of weeks. 

This activity occurred at a demand level from the 25K tick and 50K volume charts.  This would normally tell me that a large amount of buying has occurred.  However, this could actually be the first sign of a large sell off, as the SM knows there is a lot of demand at this level and this is where they can get a lot of orders filled without moving the market against their selling.

I am expecting the recent rally to continue tomorrow and into Thursday. But as it is NFP on Friday, then I would expect the next large sell off to take place, possibly into good NFP figures.

Over the coming 3 day's we have a lot of very important economic and news announcements from both Europe and the USA, including the FOMC tomorrow.  So, I believe that the SM are now getting ready to move the market one way or another and that this is the first sign of their intention.

I do not know which way the market will be going, but I will stick my neck out and say that we should expect a large sell off on Friday.

If you read about my earlier trades, then you would know I was only taking shorts as price was in a downtrend today.  I had already finished trading when the best move of the day occurred.  Price had moved up to an intraday level and fell over 150 ticks into the close.  There was another good breakout trade to be had from it.  I never used to like taking breakout trades, but with the RPM and VPI indicators, I can now see where the best breakout trades occur giving me a very high probability and low risk trade. I have attached the 10 range CL to show the B/O trade.

Today's trades

I took 2 CL trades today, both shorts and both winners.  The first was a breakout with trend.  Price was moving relatively fast after the 15:00 news event and had been in a down trend most of the day. So when it stalled and painted 2 HVC bars on the 500 tick chart I looked for a breakout.  The trade was good but I took 6 ticks of heat. I had a 11 tick SL and profit was taken at 23 ticks.  I was trying to move my profit target down, but it triggered before I could do so and missed out on another 40 ticks.

The second trade was after a 2 stage pullback and when I saw a HVC followed by a RPM down bar, I entered another short and was aiming for 50 ticks, but it would need to break the recent low.  Unfortunately it had problems breaking the low after we had a HVC bar.  Once I saw that price was stalling I took profit for only 10 ticks. Good thing too as I would have been stopped out.

Here is the video of the second trade and a screenshot of my entries and exits.

http://www.screencast.com/t/gnmtythjmwuO

Today's trades

I did not take any trades on Friday as I did not have a feel for the market.  Price rallied on ES and YM and I do not like one directional days so it was a good decision for me.  Anyways, taking breakout trades is not my forte as I prefer the pullback in a trend.  There were many breakout trades today for those who prefer them on both instruments.  I have poested a few screenshots of RPM breakouts catching the momentum trades.  I am seriously looking to start taking breakout trades in the future.  I need to lose my OTA head to do so though.

Here are a couple of videos with my trade ideas on oil.  I missed a good pull back to a supply zone which could have given around 60 ticks.

http://www.screencast.com/t/Rxcmro2c

http://www.screencast.com/t/hNqI2N6TME

Today's Trades

I seem to have been away from this journal for a while.  I am still frustrated with losing my trading account through no fault of my own, to a self confessed fraudster - Russell Wassendorf snr at PFG Best.

So until I get another live account set up, I am trading on Sim on my Optimus demo account.

Anyway, I felt good to be back on the horse again today and took 3 trades on GC, CL and ES.  I have videod them and here are the links on screencast.  Please leave comments if you like these trades.

http://www.screencast.com/t/9uAXGZBbKGR
http://www.screencast.com/t/0hdOMRuoP
http://www.screencast.com/t/rbNkaRbA
http://www.screencast.com/t/BJfglTE4F

Today's Trades

I took a total of 5 trades on sim today. The first 2 were on CL, both were stopped out.  I was shorting in a rising market. I fared better on GC, 2 trades, 2 wins, but I should have held on longer than I did and would have been a large amount up.  I was reading GC very well today.  The last trade was on YM, and it was a counter trend, but at a good intraday supply zone.  I was able to make 2 videos to show how it turned out.
Here are the links for the YM trade

http://www.screencast.com/t/MYEuy1okq

http://www.screencast.com/t/yRUaCApgY7Bw

Trading the YM/Dow Jones

Readers of this journal will know that my trading account was wiped out by the collpase of PFG Best last week and I am now going to trade on my spread betting account with IG Index, which is covered by the the FSA in the UK.  So what happened with PFG should not occur with IG Index.

The spread on CL is 4 ticks, so I was looking for an instrument with a smaller spread which is also a good mover and satisfy my requirement of 40 ticks per day target.  The Euro/USD and the Dow Jones is only 2 ticks.  I like the way both of these move, but the DJI seems to move better and as it moves in line with the e-mini SP it fits more with the RPM/VPI indicators.  So I will be using the YM as a proxy to see volume and to find intraday S&D zones.

Here are some charts from Friday's YM and ES price action with comments.