Today's Trades

I took a couple of scalps today for a total of 29 ticks, but I did not trade well overall, as I declined to take 2 trades that would have got 40 ticks each. So I feel I should have done better today and hopefully I will learn from my error and take trades that have set up as per my methodology.

However, saying I did not trade well, both of my scalps were very well executed, and the second one could have gained about 70 ticks if I had held it longer. But as it was taken as a scalp, then taking 17 ticks from it was good.

I made a video on my 2nd scalp trade, but again, the sound was not very good. However, I recorded another video to explain why the trade was taken and also explained the set up for the 2 trades that I declined to take.

Here are the videos and screenshots

http://www.screencast.com/t/3VbX3JpskA
http://www.screencast.com/t/msZQkVhdINQE

Today's Trade

I took a trade on GC today after I saw a HVC breakout on the 10 range chart. I recorded the trade, but did not have my mic properly set up, so there was no sound on the 2 trade videos. So I have done another video to explain the reason for taking the trade and setting the target.

Here are the 3 videos with the trade review video with sound first

http://www.screencast.com/t/Q1oze4My
http://www.screencast.com/t/f1aPkhtLWDd
http://www.screencast.com/t/JabbISxR

Here are some screenshots too

Today's Trade

I took one trade today on gold after  seeing a squat proxy inside bar set up. This is one of my newer set up, and it is traded in the same manner as a squat bar set up. It was a good entry, but I failed to set the first target correctly, missing an obvious supply zone for one above it. I should also have looked at the 500 tick chart for the target confirmation rather than just the 5 min chart. Probably due to rustiness. Anyway, I have attached 3 videos showing how I identifed the trade and how the trade was badly managed after I realised my mistake. I suppose it is better to make and identify these mistakes while on sim, rather than when trading live. I will be going live after one more week on sim.

http://screencast.com/t/Mwrp0dQM

http://www.screencast.com/t/29kDNYTR

http://screencast.com/t/ilXcU1INF


I missed a good squat bar set up on CL whilst trading gold. I probably need to get an indicator built to alert me when a squat bar appears on a 5 and 15 min chart, then I won't have to miss these trades.

For some unknown reason, I am unable to post today's screenshots.

Back In The Saddle

I got back around 30% of my money from the PFG trustees and I have opened a trading account with Vision Financials. I have re-started on Sim again, to get back my confidence after all the stress caused by the PFG scandal.

My trading style still remain the same way. I will look out for supply and demand zones as taught by Online Trading Academy, and I will also use volume to identify my zones and use RPM and better volume for taking breakout trades into a new trend from a basing zone, or high volume churn (or squat bars) zones.  I will also use squat bars to look for reversal trades, whenever I see one with it's close in the middle or leaving a long tail.

Today, I took a sim trade on CL at a good supply zone on the 500 tickchart. It was counter trend, but the 5 min chart had given me a sense of a change in trend and then I found a good looking supply zone on the 500 tick chart, where we had a RPM up bar with an inside bar basing and then a better volume climax breakout bar. I drew my zone around the inside bar and waited for price to retrace and took a 1 contract limit order, with a SL just above the zone. I also scaled in, below a RPM up bar, so if I was not stopped out, then I would have more confidence in the trade.

Price moved as I had hoped and stalled at a demand zone I had anticipated. However, once it broke below, I was then confident of the trade working. My first target gave 48 ticks, and then my second target was soon hit as well. This was a well executed and thought out trade for me.

Here is the 5 min and 500 tick charts, and a couple of videos of the trade.

http://www.screencast.com/t/vYViY7sO
http://www.screencast.com/t/L751Nru7woiS

Today's trade

I only took one trade today as I was watching the Olympics. Finally, GB won gold today. In fact we have two. Bradley Wiggins has been phenomenal and he has again done the business.

I did however, have a trade from last night, long at a demand level and closed it earlier today for a nice profit on 3 lots.

My trade today was on YM.  It was a scalp short at a supply zone for 30 ticks. Here is the video of the trade.

http://www.screencast.com/t/cOThRBL2e

Unusual activity on ES at today's close

I noticed that the volume of the last two 1 minute bars on the ES were abnormally large.  They were around twice the normal volume at this time of day.  So something is occurring.  Also the RPM histogram on the 50K volume chart were also extremely large, telling me that there was an unusual large amount of speed involved.  It seems that the SM are setting up for a large move over the next couple of day's, which could last well into next couple of weeks. 

This activity occurred at a demand level from the 25K tick and 50K volume charts.  This would normally tell me that a large amount of buying has occurred.  However, this could actually be the first sign of a large sell off, as the SM knows there is a lot of demand at this level and this is where they can get a lot of orders filled without moving the market against their selling.

I am expecting the recent rally to continue tomorrow and into Thursday. But as it is NFP on Friday, then I would expect the next large sell off to take place, possibly into good NFP figures.

Over the coming 3 day's we have a lot of very important economic and news announcements from both Europe and the USA, including the FOMC tomorrow.  So, I believe that the SM are now getting ready to move the market one way or another and that this is the first sign of their intention.

I do not know which way the market will be going, but I will stick my neck out and say that we should expect a large sell off on Friday.

If you read about my earlier trades, then you would know I was only taking shorts as price was in a downtrend today.  I had already finished trading when the best move of the day occurred.  Price had moved up to an intraday level and fell over 150 ticks into the close.  There was another good breakout trade to be had from it.  I never used to like taking breakout trades, but with the RPM and VPI indicators, I can now see where the best breakout trades occur giving me a very high probability and low risk trade. I have attached the 10 range CL to show the B/O trade.

Today's trades

I took 2 CL trades today, both shorts and both winners.  The first was a breakout with trend.  Price was moving relatively fast after the 15:00 news event and had been in a down trend most of the day. So when it stalled and painted 2 HVC bars on the 500 tick chart I looked for a breakout.  The trade was good but I took 6 ticks of heat. I had a 11 tick SL and profit was taken at 23 ticks.  I was trying to move my profit target down, but it triggered before I could do so and missed out on another 40 ticks.

The second trade was after a 2 stage pullback and when I saw a HVC followed by a RPM down bar, I entered another short and was aiming for 50 ticks, but it would need to break the recent low.  Unfortunately it had problems breaking the low after we had a HVC bar.  Once I saw that price was stalling I took profit for only 10 ticks. Good thing too as I would have been stopped out.

Here is the video of the second trade and a screenshot of my entries and exits.

http://www.screencast.com/t/gnmtythjmwuO