More Unusual volume activity on ES

The last time I updated this blog was a month ago and reported unusual volume activity after we had a sharp fall towards the end of the day. Price fell into the next day and then has been on another long up move of around 65 points in the month. In effect what we had seen was a shakeout and then large buying coming in at the close and a little more down move to take out some more stops before again pushing up.

I have again seen large unusual large volume on the last two 1 minute closing bars. Again, I do not know what this signifies, however, I am going to stick my neck out and say this is initial selling before a larger shakeout of the market in order to push it down to a level where the Smart Money (SM) feel it would be a good place to buy. Maybe around the 1450 level.

The reason for this opinion is that on the last occasion, price had just been through a shakeout with a couple of large sell off days, before the unusual volume activity and that was the last shakeout before the re-commencement of the up move.  However, on this occasion, we have been in a grind up with the occasional pullback and as Thursday was another up day, the SM used it to offload some of their inventory into the buying.

The second reason, is a fundamental one (I don't usually use fundamentals) where we have North Korea posturing aggressively. I believe the SM will use this as an excuse to have a large shakeout before the next leg of this very improbable up move.

So we may see a gap up on Sunday night and maybe some more up move on Monday, before the shakeout I am expecting.

One thing I know is, that the SM use holidays to make their move, and I think that is what they will do again this Easter bank holiday.

Again, this is pure speculation on my part and not advice to dump all your stocks.

Here are some charts.

On another note, I actually communicated with an individual that actually reads this blog. One of the lucky few.  LOL.  Anyway, David, I hope you found this interesting.

Regards,

Dudley