ES Update

Well, ES came down to the demand zone near the 1630 level, I had on the daily chart (on my last update) and bounced up nearly 25 points before coming back down and testing the recent low then bouncing back up on Friday from a demand zone created on the previous down move (see 100K vol chart).

If what we have seen on Wednesday is really a buying climax, then price has to break through the demand zone with force.  If it does, then the next demand level is around 1590 and then eventually 1480, but this is assuming that we have witnessed a buying climax.

If it was not one, then we should start going back up. However, we know that the Smart Money usually use the Bank Holidays to move price and we may see it this week.

Here are some charts from Friday.

Talking ES Update

Yesterday, I said I saw low level distribution coming into the ES market and today, we saw the result. Early into the session, price moved up fairly quickly, but selling was seen with several high volume churn (HVC) bars in the up move. This was on the 1 min chart. 

On the 100K volume chart, we had what appears to be a Buying Climax followed by a selling frenzy into the close. Price did bounce back about 12 points after hitting a demand zone (see yesterday's 30 min chart).

Yesterday, I said we would have a short term shakeout, but this may herald a longer term shakeout and my target of 1630 could quite easily be blown away.

Volume on the last two, 1 minute closing bars is as expected, higher than usual. After the large fall today, we may see consolidation tomorrow.  However, thing do not always go as expected. I still do not know if we will have a larger shake or if today was just a one off pre-empting the FOMC.  As always, we will see tomorrow.

I started trading a little late today and opened my platform on Gold and saw an opportunity to take a short (in a rising market), so only went for a small 48 tick winner, but price did fall another 80 ticks from my exit. However, I was quite happy with it as I did not really plan it out.

I then switched over to CL and awaited the Oil Inventory weekly report. I knew we were in a down day, so I took a short on a retrace just after the OIA report, and got a very good entry, however, my trade management skills leave a lot to be desired and I only took a 19 tick profit and watched as price fell all day. Blast. I did plan to have 2 contracts on the trade, but my 2nd limit order was not hit.

Later, I looked at the ES, and saw the down move unfolding and took a short after price had rallied up back to a great looking Throwback zone. I took 1 entry at market and placed 2 limit orders. Unfortunately, my limit orders were not triggered, so I only had one contract on the trade and profit was taken for 7.5 points. Such a pity as price fell another 25 points after that.  However, as I did not properly plan it out, I was quite happy with it.

So 3 trades today, all winners, but I feel somewhat deflated as I did not allow my CL trade to run further, as that one was planned out unlike the ES and GC which were fortunate opportunities.

Here are some screenshots:

Talking ES

I have not updated this blog for a while and in that time, the ES has blown through the 1600 level and reached a new high of 1673 today. However, I think we may be in for a short term correction (shakeout) from tomorrow. 

The reason for this is that I noticed unusually large volume at 18:09 BST on the 1 minute chart with a CCH bar. We later had another CCH bar at the same level but it was unable to break through and then we had a little sell off going into the close.

Checking the 30 min chart, we had a low volume upthrust and this has given me more reason for thinking there will be a short term correction. So maybe over the next few days, we may see a correction to around the 1630 level giving a good place to go long.

Tomorrow is FOMC so anything can happen. We will see.

Here are some charts.