Update from last week's analysis

I stated last week that I expected accumulation from the Yen, and that is what we got, with price action contained within the large volume bar.  However, for confirmation that this is really accumulation, we now need a break and close above this zone. Note we had a squat bar on Thursday, so we need price to be above that bar. What I would really love, is for price to break to the down side to stop out premature longs and to instigate breakout shorts before slamming back up and stopping them out. And then a close above Thursday's high for a really big up move. Nb, after I had posted my analysis last week, the Japanese Finance Minister (or some other senior government official) said that they will continue devaluing the Yen.  So I may be barking up the wrong tree on this one, as it is difficult to go against government intentions when it comes to weaking their currency.

The Euro has fallen as I expected, and is getting near another demand zone, so expect a bounce up early next week. Hopefully back to the throwback zone (demand now becomes supply), before dropping like a brick. I did also say we should be shorting the Eur/Jpy forex cross pair, and there was a fall of over 300 ticks during the week, before a rally on Friday.  This was more down to weakness on the Euro than strength on the Yen.  So look for a good supply zone to short it.

The ES fell to the demand zone I had pointed out so we could be in for a good rally. However, price action on Wednesday and Thursday, has given me cause for concern.  This is the first real sign of weakness I have seen since this leg of the up move started.  If we get a close below Thursday's low (or the demand zone) we can expect a shakeout (correction) of all the stock indices and possible panic selling. But I am still bullish on the short term but will be flexible with the ES.