Wednesday 11 July 2012

Gold, TF and the Head and Shoulder pattern

Yesterday, there was a large sell off on gold.  I looked on the 60 min chart and it appeared to be a selling climax, but as there was no large up move today and that yesterday's volume seemed too low for a selling climax, then we may have a 'Gotcha' daily bar which makes GC very weak.  If so, then expect the recent lows around 1550 to be re-visited and maybe even 1530.

The Head and shoulders pattern is one of the most talked about patterns in trading, but the way it is taught makes it a very high risk trade.  However, using the RPM and VPI indicator, we can reduce the risk and get in at the right shoulder.  The right shoulder is the retracement after a new trend/directional move has started and that is where we should look to enter rather than the break of the right collar.  This gives us a better R:R and we have a smaller SL.

I have used today's TF 300 tick chart to illustrate how we can use HVC to identify the left shoulder or use the RPM to enter on the right shoulder if we did not get a HVC on the left shoulder.

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