Sunday 7 April 2013

Follow up from last week's observation

Last week I observed unusually large volume on the last two, 1 minute bars just before the Easter holiday, and predicted a shakeout of the stock indices markets.  On the 15 min screenshot, I noted that I was looking for a selling signal and it duly appeared when we saw a squat climax churn (CCH) bar into new highs (end of a rising market signal) on the 1 hour chart on Tuesday evening.

We also had a squat bar on the daily charts, but it's volume was not very large. However, it was followed by a large volume climax breakout (CBO) bar on Wednesday. price consolidated on Thursday with a large move down on Friday with the NFP report, before a very good rally into the close.

My expectations is for the shakeout to continue and to see more down move over the coming weeks with a possible target of 1450.

On another note, several weeks ago, I predicted that the down move on the Yen could be over, and up to Wednesday it look like that could be correct, but then the Japanese government intervened and carried out their next round of money printing, thus devaluing the Yen again.  However, I did note at the time of my original prediction, that it would be impossible to go against governments devaluing their currency, and so it has turned out.

Here are some charts. Nb, the first screenshot (60 min) was taken when I was doing my EOD analysis on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, before the large fall on Wednesday during the NYSE session that day.





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