Wednesday 29 February 2012

Another day, another fall from the wagon

Today I traded both Oil and Gold.  My trades on Gold were fine and my entries were exceptional except for one trade.  I caught the top of a $81 (810 ticks) move, but only held it for 13 ticks.  I had another entry based on my favourite Renko LV signal and pulled 12 ticks from what turned out to be a 180 tick move.

I traded Oil badly, and got on the wrong side of the move and kept averaging down, until I had 10 contracts on at the close of the trade.  Fortunately, I am very good at seeing trend exhaustion and was able to come out of the trade with a small profit after being in an extremely large drawdown.  Unfortunately this one trade made my summary look very bad, even though I made a large profit from my other trades.

I had a couple of 50 tick trades on Gold and several more of over 30 ticks. Later in the day, after the trend on Oil had changed, I got a very good entry based on another Renko signal using the RPMnt indicator and took another 14 ticks from what could have been a 100 tick trade.

So overall, my entries are very good and if I could only deal with a bad entry and take my stop, I would have had a good day.  But with me still reverting to type, I do not see this as a good day.

The irony of that bad trade, was that I was seeing some very good trend entries on my Renko charts, but could not take any of them as I was in a stupid counter trend trade.

So I suppose the good thing from this terrible trade is it teaches me to exit a bad trade as there is a better trend trade available.

I will post my EOD review later, but yesterday before closing my platform, I did an analysis on Gold and noticed a distribution pattern and thought that it may be time for a fall, but I was not expecting a $87 drop in price. 

When I opened my charts today at 13:30 GMT, I noticed the unusual high volume around 10:00 am  where we also had reversal climax churn bars, which were both HVCs.  I did notice the CCH bars and thought that it would be a down day based on the size of the reversal bar, but did not expect price to cut through every demand zone like a hot knife through butter..

I marked off a supply zone on the 15 minute chart which was a basing area with a couple of HVC bars where price had fallen impulsively.  So when price returned to the area, I shorted it but only held for 13 ticks.  and as we know, it fell very hard from that point.  So I really should have more faith in my chart reading analysis and try and go for the big daily wins, rather than the small scalps.

I am also looking at developing my entry technique using only the 6 tick Renko chart, with both the RPMnt and the VP indicator.  I have come across some very good patterns on the Renko and also can identify where we have a fakeout breakout.  So I will be concentrating on these tomorrow. 

So here is the not as bad as it looks daily summary.

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